The Reds Are Out - But The Window Is Just Opening

The Reds were able to scratch their way into the postseason with a 83-79 record and a Mets collapse. Though the run didn’t last long and their season ended after two games with the Dodgers in the Wild Card round, it was an instant reminder that October exposes flaws quicker than the regular season ever could.

Still, you can’t help but see that there is plenty of optimism in Cincinnati. The Reds have a young core, pitching depth, and a farm system that could help sustain competitiveness, but they also have some glaring weaknesses that must be addressed if they want to go from “sneaky Wild Card team” to a legitimate power house in the National League.

The 2025 Reds by the Numbers

Offense: Below Average by Design

The Reds finished with a team wRC+ of 92 in 2025, which ranks 24th (fangraphs), and is tied with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels. Basically, the Reds created runs at a 8% lower rate than league average which means that Great American Ball Park’s hitter friendly dimensions didn’t help mask the issue. Here are some of the other team stats and where they rank:

• Team OBP: .315 (16th)

• Team SLG: .391 (21st)

• Team ISO: .146 (24th)

• Team BB%: 8.7% (lg avg = 8.4%)

• Team K%: 23.3% (lg avg = 22.2%)

From this data, we have 2 key areas that can be highlighted of where the team struggled: (1) getting on base and (2) producing consistent extra-base power. The high strikeout rate made it difficult to sustain scoring runs during potential rallies and the lack of players on base means that there were more solo shots than multi-run shots (96 solo shots in total compared to 71 when runners on base).

While Elly De La Cruz didn’t have the massive jump that many thought he would, he is still the most exciting player on the roster and led the Reds offense in multiple categories with a 4.3 fWAR (3.6 bWAR; pick your favorite) while posting a 108 wRC+. Cutting down on his strike outs (25.9%) would help take his bat to that next level. It is safe to say that De La Cruz’s blend of raw power and speed will play an important role in this next era of Cincinnati baseball. Matt McLain regressed at the plate (77 wRC+) and spent most of the season battling inconsistency after a strong debut (McLain missed the entire 2024 season). The team will hope for a bounce back in 2026. The Reds did see around league average production from players like TJ Friedl, Gavin Lux, and Austin Hayes but mostly missing that bat which could have helped anchor the lineup with patience and pop.

In short, the Reds offense is athletic, streaky, and explosive in moments but inefficient over 162 games, keeping in mind, this is an upcoming young core. We won’t get into defense in this article but the team will be productive there.

Pitching Carrying the Load

The story was a bit different on the pitching side of things. The Reds were tied for 9th in ERA (3.86), which was very close to their xERA of 3.97. The team was also above league average when it came to strike outs and walks allowed. The rotation was the backbone of the pitching:

• Andrew Abbott (3.9 fWAR) helped stabilize the rotation with quality innings posting a 2.87 ERA in 166.1 innings, 8.1 K/9

• Hunter Greene (2.9 fWAR), their electric arm that misses bats and limits damage with a 2.76 ERA while posting a 11.03 K/9, a 0.938 WHIP and an elite 166 ERA+. The only problem was injuries once again struck as Green only threw 107.2 innings

• Nick Lodolo (2.8 fWAR) continues to be a solid middle of the rotation arm, when healthy. Lodolo posted a 3.33 ERA in 156 innings. He has seen his K/9 drop but has also reduced the amount of walks given up, going from 2.9 in 2024 to 1.8 in 2025.

Beyond those three, the Reds also got solid production out of Brady Singer (2.9 fWAR), who they acquired from the Royals for Jonathan India. Along with Nick Martinez (2.1 fWAR), making 26 starts before moving to help the bullpen once the team acquired Zack Littell at the trade deadline.

The Bullpen, however, wasn’t as dominant as the rotation. Reds relievers combined for a 3.89 ERA (they did finish the season strong with a 0.94 ERA since Sept. 15). The bullpen posted a 3.3 fWAR as a whole, saved 41 games while serving up 22 blown saves. They also had a high BB% with 10.4%. 

The Core Moving Forward

The Reds competitive window is just getting started and it starts with the young core:

• Elly De La Cruz has 30/30 potential but needs to improve his plate discipline.

• Andrew Abbott is a durable solid No. 2 in the rotation, who can be leaned on in important games.

• Hunter Greene is one of the more dominant strikeout pitchers in baseball but health remains a factor.

• Nick Lodolo is a solid middle of the rotation left-hander.

• Sal Stewart, Reds number 1 prospect got a cup of coffee, appearing in 18 games for the team and has middle of the order potential.

• Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns both project as strong mid-rotation arms and will see more innings in 2026.

The Reds pitching staff should again be at the top half of MLB in 2026 but offensive additions are a big need if they want to build on their taste of playoff baseball.

The 2026 Offseason

To wrap up, the Reds should be busy in the offseason. They should be looking for a true middle-of-the-order bat, preferably a left-handed one. They also need hitters to get on base more and focus on improving from that not so desirable 92 wRC+. With the infield set, this bat would ideally be a big outfield piece. While the bullpen wasn’t horrible, it could use a piece or two to supplement the rotation. That means getting a lockdown bullpen piece, one that can shut down an inning when needed and pitch in high leverage situations. 

The team only has 3 players guaranteed contracts in 2026 for about $22mil. Of course, there are options and arbitration that still need to be decided on but the Reds should have some wiggle room to add in the Free Agent market especially after a playoff appearance. If the market doesn’t have anything that they deem reasonable or a must, they have a deep infield that they could deal from to improve the Major League roster. They are stacked with infielders and could realistically deal from the system such as Tyson Lewis, Steele Hall, Cam Collier, and Edwin Arroyo to name a few. If they feel comfortable enough they could also consider moving Rhett Lowder or Chase Petty. 

The Reds are no longer rebuilding, the time is coming and they need to make these adjustments to keep up with the Brewers and Cubs.